DEE FENCE

When Bob Quinn was GM of the Cincinnati Reds they won the World Series with Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble and Randy Myers in the bullpen. When I asked Bob how he did it he told me that his father who used to be GM of the Braves always told him "Son it is a game of defense; and the first line of defense is on the mound." What Bob's Dad didn't tell him was how to quantify the defense which today is done masterfully and neatly with numbers. And that is exactly what Theo Epstein and company were looking at very closely as they upgraded the 2009 Red Sox who were last in the league in defense despite having some very good pitchers. In order to get the most out of your pitching and for it to be a competitive edge, naturally you have to have good defenders in the field to catch the ball. If your defenders aren't very good then your pitchers aren't as good as they can be and your team suffers. Let's take a look at John Dewan's recent work in his weekly "Stat of the Week" Column.

The Red Sox Believe in Defense

January 12, 2010

The Boston Red Sox fell from an estimated 20 Defensive Runs Saved as a team in 2008 to second worst in baseball at -52 Runs Saved last year. This, no doubt, was a key contributing factor for the pitching staff’s increased ERA. Mike Lowell played through a hip injury that turned a previously good defender into an abysmal one, totaling -18 Runs Saved at third. Additionally, young shortstop Jed Lowrie hit the DL early in 2009, forcing Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, and the defensively-challenged Julio Lugo into the lineup as fill-ins. The team acquired another bat in Victor Martinez, a notoriously bad defensive catcher.

Recognizing their defensive shortcomings, General Manager Theo Epstein has brought in three defensively-minded acquisitions this offseason: Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and Mike Cameron. Here’s how each performed in 2009 compared to the Red Sox at their respective positions:
Red Sox Offseason Acquisitions
Player Position Runs Saved
Adrian Beltre 3B 22
Red Sox 2009 3B -18
--- --- ---
Marco Scutaro SS 12
Red Sox 2009 SS -19
--- --- ---
Mike Cameron CF 3
Red Sox 2009 CF -10
--- --- ---
Total Acquisitions 3B/SS/CF 37
Red Sox 2009 3B/SS/CF -47
Difference 84

If the new acquisitions manage to repeat their performances from last year, that’s an upgrade of 84 runs on defense alone. Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron all had defensive seasons consistent with their previous seasons, based on Defensive Runs Saved, so a repeat of 2009 isn’t out of the question.

Additionally, the Red Sox will move centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to replace average defender Jason Bay in left field, where Ellsbury’s weak arm can hide and his range will shine. Based on his previous performance at the corner outfield spots, Ellsbury is likely to be a five to ten run defensive improvement over Bay.

Using the rule of thumb that 10 runs equals one win, defense could boost Boston as many as eight or nine wins beyond their 2009 win total. While the Red Sox haven't signed any big name free agent hitters (though they did add pitcher John Lackey), it is our estimation that improved defense alone will easily more than make up for lost offensive production (primarily the loss of Jason Bay).

"Used with permission from John Dewan's Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com."

So if the Red Sox improve by 9 wins this year that means 104 wins and you'll know the reason behind it. Oh by the way this isn't your grandfather's Red Sox; it isn't even your father's Red Sox because now you can value defense or run prevention as precisely as Runs.

If you really miss baseball visit www.duquettesports.com and register for our father son weekend, a camp week or tournament this summer.